We investigate the interaction between inequality, leverage and financial crises using bivariate Granger causality tests for a sample of 13 European countries and the United States over the period 1975-2013. We also examine the relevance of other determinants of expansions in credit to income...

We investigate the interaction between inequality, leverage and financial crises using bivariate Granger causality tests for a sample of 13 European countries and the United States over the period 1975-2013. We also examine the relevance of other determinants of expansions in credit to income...

With public debt-to-GDP levels now set to surpass post-war records and Italy's ratio approaching levels reached in Greece on the eve of the country's debt restructuring in early 2012, fears of a return of the sovereign debt crisis have emerged.

With public debt-to-GDP levels now set to surpass post-war records and Italy’s ratio approaching levels reached in Greece on the eve of the country’s debt restructuring in early 2012, fears of a return of the sovereign debt crisis have emerged.

The growth of the German economy intrinsically depends on the development of German exports to the euro area, which is by far the biggest market for German products. The paper estimates a structural equation for the export demand from the EMU member countries, which is suitable for both...

This paper analyzes the real-time out-of-sample performance of three kinds of combination schemes. While for each the set of underlying forecasts is slightly modified, all of them are real-time recession probability forecasts generated by a dynamic probit indicator. Among the considered...

This paper uses several macroeconomic and financial indicators within a Markov Switching (MS) framework to predict the turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession and the recovery after the financial crisis. We show...

This paper provides market risk calculation for an equity-based trading portfolio. Instead of relying on the purely stochastic internal model method, which banks currently apply in line with the Basel regulatory requirements, we propose to include also alternative price mechanisms from the...