We construct mean-variance optimized currency portfolios and analyze the time- series variation of the conditional Sharpe ratio. Returns, volatility and skewness are predictable. Market timing – i.e., trading more (less) aggressively when the conditional risk-return trade-off is more (less)...

Output fluctuations in nontraded sectors are a primary country-specific risk factor because nontraded outputs are consumed domestically. While nontraded sector growth risks are mostly non-diversifiable, they can be partially mitigated by international trades in other sectors. The mitigation...