We use dynamic panel analysis to examine whether credit rating agencies achieve what they claim to achieve, namely, look into the future when assigning their ratings. We find that Moodey's ratings help predict individual financial ratios over a horizon of up to five years. Ratings also predict a...

This paper investigates some common determinants of default probability changes ofindividual firms using Standard & Poor's ratings database. We analyze and quantify the re-sponses of hazard rates to changes in various economic variables, namely financial markets,business cycle and credit...

Individual financial systems can be understood as very specific configurations of certain keyelements. Often these configurations remain unchanged for decades. We hypothesize that thereis a specific relationship between key elements, namely that of complementarity. Thus,complementarity seems to...

The binary and multinomial logit models are applied for prediction of the Russian banks defaults (license withdrawals) using data from bank balance sheets and macroeconomic indicators. Significantly different models correspond to the two main grounds for license withdrawal: financial insolvency...

Surveys on the use of agency credit ratings reveal that most investors believe that rating agencies are relatively slow in adjusting their ratings. (...)

Centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, which manage annual trading volumes on the scale of trillions of US dollars worldwide, are classified as virtual asset service providers (VASPs). They facilitate the exchange, custody, and transfer of cryptoassets organized in wallets across distributed...

Rating agencies claim to look through the cycle when assigning corporate credit ratings,which entails that they are able to separate trend components of default risk from transitoryones. To test whether agencies possess this competence, I take market-based estimates of oneyeardefault...

This paper assesses whether ratings or market-based credit risk measures are more suitable forformulating portfolio governance rules. Such rules, which consist of buy and sell restrictions,are commonly used in investment management. Based on data from 1983 to 2002, it is notevident that one of...

Using a structural model of default, I derive rating characteristics if ratings are meant tolook ‘through the cycle’ as opposed to being based on the borrowers’ current condition.The through-the-cycle method, which is employed by most rating agencies, requires aseparation of permanent and...

Individual financial systems can be understood as very specific configurations of certain key elements. Often these configurations remain unchanged for decades. We hypothesize that there is a specific relationship between key elements, namely that of complementarity. Thus, complementarity seems...