A great proportion of stock dynamics can be explained using publicly availableinformation. The relationship between dynamics and public information may be ofnonlinear character. In this paper we offer an approach to stock picking by employing so-called decision trees and applying them to XETRA...

This paper examines properties of mean-variance inefficient proxies with respect to producing a linear relation between expected returns and betas. The numerical results of a Monte Carlo simulation show that in the CAPM slightly inefficient, positively weighted proxies cause an almost perfect...

While there is little controversy on the profitability of momentum strategies, their implementation is afflicted with many difficulties. Most important, chasing momentum can generate high turnover. Though there are already several attempts to make momentum strategies less expensive with respect...

Assessments of investors’ risk appetite/aversion stance via indicators often yields resultswhich seem unsatisfactory (see e.g. Illing and Aaron (2005)). Understanding howsuch indicators work therefore seems essential for further improvements. The presentpaper seeks to contribute to this...

Using a new data set on investor sentiment we show that institutional and individualsentiment proxy for smart money and noise trader risk, respectively. First, usingbias-adjusted long-horizon regressions, we document that institutional sentiment forecastsstock market returns at intermediate...

The puzzling evidence of seemingly high momentum returns is related to an understanding ofrisk as a simple covariance. If we consider, however, risk in higher-order statistical moments,momentum returns appear less advantageous.

We perform a general equilibrium analysis in a complete markets economy whenthe dividend follows a jump-diffusion process with stochastic volatility. Agents haveCRRA utility, but differ with respect to their degree of risk aversion. The keyoutput of our analysis is the structure of the...

We consider an exchange economy with two heterogeneous stocks and twogroups of investors. Dividends follow diusion processes, with a constant expectedgrowth rate for one stock and a stochastic drift for the other. 'Rationalinvestors' can either observe this stochastic drift without error or...

In this paper we perform a general equilibrium analysis when the dividend followsa jump-diffusion process with stochastic volatility, where both the dividend itselfand its volatility can jump. We work in a complete markets economy and assumethat agents have CRRA utility, but can differ with...

In this paper we study the equilibrium in a heterogeneous economy with twogroups of investors. Over-confident experts incorrectly assume that their signalfor the drift of the dividend process is correlated with the true drift, butinterpret the signal otherwise perfectly. Rational laymen avoid...