In this article, we derive a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for positivity of the vector conditional variance equation in multivariate GARCH models with explicit modelling of conditional correlation. These models include the constant conditional correlation GARCH model of Bollerslev...

In this paper we propose a Lagrange multiplier test for volatility interactions among markets or assets. The null hypothesis is the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH model in which volatility of an asset is described only through lagged squared innovations and volatility of its own. The...

In this paper we propose a Lagrange multiplier test for volatility interactions among markets or assets. The null hypothesis is the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH model in which volatility of an asset is described only through lagged squared innovations and volatility of its own. The...

We present a mixed-frequency model for daily forecasts of euro area inflation. The model combines a monthly index of core inflation with daily data from financial markets; estimates are carried out with the MIDAS regression approach. The forecasting ability of the model in real-time is compared...

We propose a simple non-equilibrium model of a financial market as an open system with a possible exchange of money with an outside world and market frictions (trade impacts) incorporated into asset price dynamics via a feedback mechanism. Using a linear market impact model, this produces a...

In this study, we develop a framework, based on the Global Vector Autoregression Model (GVAR), to unite two differing perspectives on commodity markets, the single-market centered approach, investigating the micro- and macroeconomic drivers of commodity prices, as well as the inter-market...

INTRODUCTION;ROLE OF FINANCIAL VARIABLES;A TWO-STEP APPROACH TO MODEL INFLATION ; MODELLING LONG-MEDIUM TERM COMPONENT OF INFLATION ;A MIXED-FREQUENCY MODEL FOR REAL-TIME FORECASTS OF INFLATION; 4 TWO FORECASTING APPLICATIONS IN REAL-TIME; REAL-TIME FORECASTS OF MONTHLY INFLATION; MODEL FORECASTS...

When the log-price process incorporates a jump component, realised variance will no longer estimate the integrated variance since its probability limit will be determined by the continuous and jump components. Instead realised bipower variation, tripower variation and quadpower variation are...

The asymptotic theories used to estimate the integrated variance using realised variance or multipower variation suggest that returns should be sampled at the highest possible frequency. This leads to a bias problem due to market microstructure effects that can completely invalidate the theory....