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I develop a theoretical framework to identify investors' subjective beliefs that are jointly consistent with survey expectations and asset prices in markets where investors face trading frictions. To quantify the deviation of investors' beliefs from Rational Expectations (RE), I provide a metric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236026
We study the links between expectations, fundamentals, and asset returns using the rich empirical setup offered by commodity markets. We find that survey-based expectations predict future fundamentals, but are not significant predictors of future returns. Expectations of returns are correlated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012988158
law of one price, and is present in all but risk-neutral economies. We test the cross-sectional predictions of our theory … equity than for assets, and stronger for more levered firms — consistent with the theory. We test also the timeseries … implications of the theory. Time variation in asset ivol causes time variation in the option value of equity that translates into …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910108
We document a nominal stock price effect that is (like momentum) associated with (national) culture. Using the full spectrum of cultural dimensions proposed by Hofstede et al. and the cross-section of stock returns of 41 countries, we not only show a robust predictive and explanatory power of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861754
This paper examines the risk premium associated with the information shocks in equity markets. For all stocks traded in Borsa Istanbul between March 2005 and December 2020, we calculate information shocks as the unanticipated information asymmetry by focusing on the changes in the proportion of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013404748
It is well established that value stocks outperform glamour stocks, yet considerable debate exists about whether the return differential reflects compensation for risk or mispricing. Under mispricing explanations, prices of glamour (value) firms reflect systematically optimistic (pessimistic)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013093880
The study introduces empirical evidence that there are statistically significant relationships between intensity of upcoming aggregate merger activity and the present values of the factors HML and SMB in the Fama-French three-factor model of assets pricing
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065679
We measure investors' short- and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data. These expectations at different horizons reveal what investors think their own short-term expectations will be in the future, or forward return expectations. While contemporaneous short-term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372444
This paper investigates whether security markets price the effect of social distancing on firms' operations. We document that firms that are more resilient to social distancing significantly outperformed those with lower resilience during the COVID-19 outbreak, even after controlling for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833771
explained by common risk factors – implying that a risk-based theory is not likely an explanation of the result – and is robust …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236765