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Riding the energy transition : oil beyond 2040

Chérif, Réda; Hasanov, Fuad; Pande, Aditya - 2017

Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011704548

Risk Premia and Seasonality in Commodity Futures

Hevia, Constantino - 2016

We develop and estimate a multifactor affine model of commodity futures that allows for stochastic variations in seasonality. We show conditions under which the yield curve and the cost-of-carry curve adopt augmented Nelson and Siegel functional forms. This restricted version of the model is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012992825

Speculation in Commodity Futures Markets, Inventories and the Price of Crude Oil

Byun, Sung Je - 2021

This paper examines the role of inventories in refiners' gasoline production and develops a structural model of the relationship between crude oil prices and inventories. Using data on inventories and prices of oil futures, I show that convenience yields decrease at a diminishing rate as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314658

Shock Propagation Across the Futures Term Structure : Evidence from Crude Oil Prices

Lautier, Delphine - 2018

To what extent are futures prices interconnected across the maturity curve? Where in the term structure do price shocks originate, and which maturities do they reach? We propose a new approach, based on information theory, to study these cross-maturity linkages and the extent to which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938005

OPEC and the Oil Market

Nazer, Yousef; Pescatori, Andreas - 2022

This paper studies the historical importance of OPEC for oil price fluctuations. An event-study approach is used to identify the effects of OPEC announcements on oil price fluctuations. Results show that price volatility is higher than typical around OPEC meetings. Also, members' compliance, a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014244439

Forecasting the oil-gasoline price relationship : should we care about the rockets and the feathers?

Bastianin, Andrea; Galeotti, Marzio; Manera, Matteo - 2014

, while the ECM implies symmetric price transmission from crude oil to gasoline. We quantify the forecast accuracy gains due …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010251557

The peak oil debate

Graefe, Laurel - 2009

For the past half-century, a debate has raged over when "peak oil" will occurthe point at which output can no longer increase and production begins to level off or gradually decline. Determining how long the oil supply will last has become even more pressing because the world's energy supply...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009413741

Physical Market Determinants of the Price of Crude Oil and the Market Premium

Chevillon, Guillaume - 2007

We analyze the physical, i.e. non financial, determinants of the real price of crude oil by means of an equilibrium correction model over the last two decades. We find that two cointegrating relations affect the change in prices: one refers to OPEC's cartel behavior attempting to control prices...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012730831

Forecasting the Price of Crude Oil with Multiple Predictors

Kaya, Hüseyin - 2017

suggest that oil futures prices have marginal predictive power for the price of oil at a 1-month forecast horizon. However …, they generally lose their forecasting power at higher forecast horizons. The results also suggest that exchange rates help … predicting oil prices at higher forecast horizons. The paper also considers forecast averaging and variable selection methods …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012957399

Technological Progress and Climate Change : Evidence from the Agricultural Sector

Da Mata, Daniel; Dotta, Mario; Lobo, Thiago - 2023

We provide evidence of how technological progress affects greenhouse gas emissions. Using a dynamic difference-in-differences design, we show that producers in Brazilian localities with high suitability for genetically engineered seeds increase crop output by substituting away from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014260955