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Riding the energy transition : oil beyond 2040

Cherif, Reda; Hasanov, Fuad; Pande, Aditya - 2017

Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011704548

Net-zero emissions : main technological, geopolitical, and economic consequences of the new energy scenario

Ruffini, Alessandra; Salerno, Andrea; Simões, Francisco - 2022

This paper discusses possible technical, economical and geopolitical consequences of the new energy scenario. We analyze the net zero emissions global race with an emphasis on the role renewable energies will play in this phenomenon and COP26’s recent decisions on climate and energy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013309192

Shock Propagation Across the Futures Term Structure : Evidence from Crude Oil Prices

Lautier, Delphine - 2018

To what extent are futures prices interconnected across the maturity curve? Where in the term structure do price shocks originate, and which maturities do they reach? We propose a new approach, based on information theory, to study these cross-maturity linkages and the extent to which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938005

Risk Premia and Seasonality in Commodity Futures

Hevia, Constantino - 2016

We develop and estimate a multifactor affine model of commodity futures that allows for stochastic variations in seasonality. We show conditions under which the yield curve and the cost-of-carry curve adopt augmented Nelson and Siegel functional forms. This restricted version of the model is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012992825

Speculation in Commodity Futures Markets, Inventories and the Price of Crude Oil

Byun, Sung Je - 2021

This paper examines the role of inventories in refiners' gasoline production and develops a structural model of the relationship between crude oil prices and inventories. Using data on inventories and prices of oil futures, I show that convenience yields decrease at a diminishing rate as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314658

Changing electricity markets : quantifying the price effects of greening the energy matrix

Kohlscheen, Emanuel; Moessner, Richhild - 2022 - Original Version: June 2022, this version: July 2022

We analyse the drivers of European Power Exchange (EPEX) retail electricity prices between 2012 and early 2022 using machine learning. The agnostic random forest approach that we use is able to reduce in-sample root mean square errors (RMSEs) by around 50% when compared to a standard linear...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013262773

Asymmetric Non-Commodity Output Responses to Commodity Price Shocks

Wilson, James; Newiak, Monique; Mati, Amine - 2022

This paper focuses on identifying potential asymmetric responses of non-commodity output growth in times of positive and negative commodity terms-of-trade shocks. Using a sample of 27 oil-exporting countries and a panel VAR method, the study finds: 1) the short-and medium-run response of real...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306794

Granger Predictability of Oil Prices after the Great Recession

Benk, Szilard - 2019

Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970's oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858386

Physical Market Determinants of the Price of Crude Oil and the Market Premium

Chevillon, Guillaume - 2007

We analyze the physical, i.e. non financial, determinants of the real price of crude oil by means of an equilibrium correction model over the last two decades. We find that two cointegrating relations affect the change in prices: one refers to OPEC's cartel behavior attempting to control prices...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012730831

Forecasting the Price of Crude Oil with Multiple Predictors

Kaya, Hüseyin - 2017

suggest that oil futures prices have marginal predictive power for the price of oil at a 1-month forecast horizon. However …, they generally lose their forecasting power at higher forecast horizons. The results also suggest that exchange rates help … predicting oil prices at higher forecast horizons. The paper also considers forecast averaging and variable selection methods …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012957399

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