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The rationality and reliability of expectations reported by British households: micro evidence from the British household panel survey
Mitchell, James; Weale, Martin R. - 2007
This paper assesses the accuracy of individuals' expectations of their financial circumstances, as reported in the British Household Panel Survey, as predictors of outcomes and identifies what factors influence their reliability. As the data are qualitative bivariate ordered probit models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295856
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The rationality and reliability of expections reported by British Households : micro evidence from the British Household Panel Survey
Mitchell, James (contributor); Weale, Martin (contributor) - 2007
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003428473
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The rationality and reliability of expectations reported by British households : micro evidence from the British household panel survey
Mitchell, James (contributor); Weale, Martin (contributor) - 2007
This paper assesses the accuracy of individuals’ expectations of their financial circumstances, as reported in the British Household Panel Survey, as predictors of outcomes and identifies what factors influence their reliability. As the data are qualitative bivariate ordered probit models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003529544
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Examining income expectations in the college and early post-college periods : new distributional tests of rational expectations
Crossley, Thomas F.; Gong, Yifan; Stinebrickner, Todd R.; … - 2021
existing mean-based tests. Beliefs about future income are found to become more accurate as students progress through school …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012427620
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Examining income expectations in the college and early post-college periods : new distributional tests of rational expectations
Crossley, Thomas F.; Gong, Yifan; Stinebrickner, Todd R.; … - 2021
existing mean-based tests. Beliefs about future income are found to become more accurate as students progress through school …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012417717
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Some evolutionary foundations for price level rigidity
Saint-Paul, Gilles - 2002
This paper shows that price rigidity evolves in an economy populated by imperfectly rational agents who experiment with alternative rules of thumb. In the model, firms must set their prices in face of aggregate demand shocks. Their payoff depends on the level of aggregate demand, as well as on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011409938
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Earn more tomorrow : overconfident income expectations and consumer indebtedness
Grohmann, Antonia; Menkhoff, Lukas; Merkle, Christoph; … - 2019
This paper examines whether biased income expectations due to overconfidence lead to higher levels of debt-taking. In a … lab experiment, participants can purchase goods by borrowing against their future income. We exogenously manipulate income … expectations by letting income depend on relative performance in hard and easy quiz tasks. We successfully generate biased income …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012033567
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Earn more tomorrow : overconfidence, income expectations and consumer indebtedness
Grohmann, Antonia; Menkhoff, Lukas; Merkle, Christoph; … - 2023
This paper examines whether biased income expectations due to overconfidence lead to higher levels of debt-taking. We …, participants can purchase goods by borrowing against their future income. We exogenously manipulate overconfidence about income … expectations by letting income depend on relative performance in hard and easy quiz tasks. In the main experiment, we successfully …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468921
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Heterogeneity in individual expectations, sentiment, and constant-gain learning
Cole, Stephen J.; Milani, Fabio - 2020
The adaptive learning approach has been fruitfully employed to model the formation of aggregate expectations at the macroeconomic level, as an alternative to rational expectations. This paper uses adaptive learning to understand, instead, the formation of expectations at the micro-level, by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012226634
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Household income expectations : the role of shocks and aggregate conditions
Bucciol, Alessandro; Easaw, Joshy Z.; Trucchi, Serena - 2024
We conduct an empirical investigation to examine how income shocks and aggregate conditions influence income … detailed information on household income expectations. Our results show that income shocks, much more than aggregate conditions …, induce a revision in income expectations across the entire spectrum of the income distribution. This expectation revision is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014491735