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Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations
Enders, Zeno; Kleemann, Michael; Müller, Gernot J. - 2013
line with theory, induce a negative nowcast error but raise economic activity in the short run. They account for up to 30 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010224834
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Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations
Enders, Zeno - 2018
and the real-time prediction of professional forecasters. We find that optimism shocks – in line with theory - generate a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938129
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Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations
Enders, Zeno; Kleemann, Michael; Müller, Gernot J. - 2016
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011550995
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Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations
Enders, Zeno; Kleemann, Michael; Müller, Gernot J. - 2017
and the real-time prediction of professional forecasters. We find that optimism shocks - in line with theory - generate a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011649164
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Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations : conference paper
Enders, Zeno; Kleemann, Michael; Müller, Gernot J. - 2013 - Preliminary and incomplete
-run restrictions on a VAR model to disentangle the effects of both shocks. We find that optimism shocks - in line with theory - reduce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010342128
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Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations
Enders, Zeno; Kleemann, Michael; Müller, Gernot J. - In: The review of economics and statistics 103 (2021) 5, pp. 905-921
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013163364
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Can Indeterminacy and Self-Fulfilling Expectations Help Explain International Business Cycles? A Preliminary Investigation
McKnight, Stephen - 2016
We introduce equilibrium indeterminacy into a two-country incomplete asset model with imperfect competition and analyze whether self-fulfilling, belief-driven fluctuations (i.e., sunspot shocks) can help resolve the major puzzles of international business cycles. We find that a combination of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013004783
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Networks and the macroeconomy : an empirical exploration
Acemoglu, Daron; Akcigit, Ufuk; Kerr, William R. - 2015
the direct impact of a shock and the magnitudes of the downstream and the upstream indirect effects. We then investigate … through the input-output network, with a pattern broadly consistent with theory. Quantitatively, the network-based propagation …, capturing the fact that the local propagation of a shock to an industry will fall more heavily on other industries that tend to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305281
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Networks and the macroeconomy : an empirical exploration
Acemoglu, Daron; Akcigit, Ufuk; Kerr, William R. - 2015
the direct impact of a shock and the magnitudes of the downstream and the upstream indirect effects. We then investigate … through the input-output network, with a pattern broadly consistent with theory. Quantitatively, the network-based propagation …, capturing the fact that the local propagation of a shock to an industry will fall more heavily on other industries that tend to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011491706
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TFP and the transmission of shocks : conference paper
Mayer, Eric; Rüth, Sebastian; Scharler, Johann - 2014
We show that TFP reacts counter-cyclically to macroeconomic shocks, which we identify by imposing sign restrictions. Counterfactual simulations, based on a New Keynesian DSGE model, show that firms manage to employ labor more efficiently during downturns, which leads to a muted drop in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010489298