In structural vector autoregressive models of US and euro area manufacturing, we use sign restrictions to identify shocks that alter the frictions to Chinese supply chain trade. We find a quantitatively significant role of such shocks for the decline of US manufacturing output at the height of...

In structural vector autoregressive models of United States and euro area manufacturing, we use sign restrictions to identify shocks that alter the frictions to Chinese supply chain trade. We find a quantitatively significant role of such shocks for the decline of US manufacturing output at the...

In structural vector autoregressive models of United States and euro area manufacturing, we use sign restrictions to identify shocks that alter the frictions to Chinese supply chain trade. We find a quantitatively significant role of such shocks for the decline of US manufacturing output at the...

This study uncovers a cross-border financial diversification motive related to goods and services trade. Using the IMF CPIS panel data set for a broad set of country pairs and for the period 2001-2012, I find empirical evidence that the share of equity in a bilateral portfolio decreases with...

This paper studies the ability of manufacturing-specific shocks to explain global oil prices. In an estimated three-region DSGE model (UnitedStates, OPEC, rest-of-world) in corporating two sectors (manufacturing and services) in the oil-importing economies and featuring cross-border...

In light of recent global economic and geopolitical shocks threatening trade openness, this report aims to shed light on geoeconomic fragmentation and develops a rich set of new tools to assess its economic effects and implications for central banks. The report shows that, although global trade...

In recent years, major exporting economies experienced rising geopolitical risk. From the perspective of the US and the euro area, we employ detailed product data panels to study the consequences of trading-partner geopolitical risk shocks on bilateral imports. We find that these shocks lower...

In a structural dynamic model that incorporates two broad production sectors with different carbon emissions, we find that climate policy uncertainty (CPU) shocks (i) lower the market value of the highly carbon-emitting sector relative to the low carbon-emitting sector, and (ii) reduce real...