We reassess the predictability of U.S. recessions at horizons from three months to two years ahead for a large number of previously proposed leading-indicator variables. We employ an efficient probit estimator for partially missing data and assess relative model performance based on the receiver...

A substantial fraction of local governments refinance their long-term debt with significant delays - resulting in sizable losses. Using data from 2001 to 2018, we estimate that U.S. municipals lost over $31 billion from this delayed refinancing, whereas the entire U.S. corporate sector, facing...

We reassess the predictability of U.S. recessions at horizons from three months to two years ahead for a large number of previously proposed leading-indicator variables. We employ an efficient probit estimator for partially missing data and assess relative model performance based on the receiver...

We document that political frictions significantly affect both pricing and supply in the long-term care insurance (LTCI) market. Comparing insurers' requests for premium increases submitted in the same year and for the same policy to different state regulators, we find that they are 7.7% more...

We reassess the predictability of U.S. recessions at horizons from three months to two years ahead for a large number of previously proposed leading-indicator variables. We employ an efficient probit estimator for partially missing data and assess relative model performance based on the receiver...

We propose a novel measure of intermediary risk exposure based on the fraction of interdealer trade. Intuitively, when aggregate risk exposure rises, dealers trade more with each other to redistribute customer orders. In the U.S. Treasury market, our measure has a 0.72 correlation with dealers'...

Almost 95% of long-term municipal bonds have callable features, and despite low interest rates, we find that a substantial fraction of local governments exercise these options with significant delays. Using data from 2001 to 2018, we estimate that U.S. municipals lost over $31 billion from...

Relative to wealthier school districts, less wealthy districts have difficulty obtaining municipal bond market funding. When a district issues more bonds to finance education infrastructure, it experiences improvements in both test scores and home prices. Yet, for each standard deviation...