The emergence of novelty is a driving agent for economic change. New technologies, new products and services, new institutional arrangements, to mention a few examples, are the backbone of development and growth. Important though it is, the emergence of novelty is not well understood. What seems...

This text was written as part of the project "Modelling of Complex Systems for Public Policy". It reviews the classical authors who jointly contributed to establish the elements of what could constitute a "science of complexity". Based on the original writings of these authors, the text...

A key aim of economics is to set goals and investigate the relationship between various socio-economic indicators. By fitting time series data using a Bayesian dynamical systems approach we identify non-linear interactions between GDP, child mortality, fertility rate and female education. We...

Global emissions beyond 44 gigatonnes of carbondioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2020 can potentially lead the world to an irreversible climate change. Employing a novel dynamical system modeling approach, we predict that in a business-asusual scenario, it will reach 61 GtCO2e by 2020. Testing...

The paper develops a dynamical systems approach to study asset bubbles in OLG economies with stochastic production. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for bubbly equilibria to exist and chracterize the maximum sustainable bubble. Even if they exist, bubbles are temporary and the...

Both mathematical modelling and simulation methods in general have contributed greatly to understanding, insight and forecasting in many fields including macroeconomics. Never-theless, we must remain careful to distinguish model-land and model-land quantities from the real world. Decisions taken...