This paper uses a long-run identifying restrictions on a three-variable system containing output growth, real wage growth and the unemployment rate, to isolate three "structural" shocks which drove business cycle fluctuations in a sample of 16 OECD countries during 1950-94.

We consider a discrete-time two-sector Cobb-Douglas economy with positive sector specific external effects. We show that indetermincay of steady states and cycles can easily arise with constant or decreasing social returns to scale, and very small market imperfections. This is in sharp contrast...

In a dynamic general equilibrium setup, this paper highlights the role of vintages and creative destruction in business fluctuations. By stressing the forward-looking characteristic of the optimal scrapping rule, we use a standard rational expectations argument to show the constancy of the...

QUEST was designed to analyse the economies in the member states of the European Union and their interactions with the rest of the world, especially with the United States and Japan. The focus of the model is oc the transmission of the effects of economic policy both on the domestic and...

The abrupt end of economic growth in Malaysia has created a new mood of insecurity. However, "economic insecurity" is rarely discussed in the professional economics literature and has received little emphasis in recent economic policy making in OECD nations. This paper argues that economic...

This paper analyzes regime shifts in the stochastic process of economic growth of six major OECD countries over three decades. For the statistical measurement of the underlying global business cycle, we generalize Hamilton's model of the US business cycle to a Markov-switching vector...

This paper considers the extent to which fluctuations in Australian economic growth are affected by domestic and overseas economic performance. We investigate the performance of a range of non-linear models versus linear models using Bayes factors and posterior odds ratios. The posterior odds...