This study applies the Cointegrated Vector-Autoregressive (CVAR) model to analyze the long-run relationships and short-run dynamics between stock markets and monetary policy across five developed and three emerging economies. Our main aim is to check whether monetary policy plays an important...

Following Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) and Estrella and Mishkin (1995a, b), we study the ability of the term structure to predict recessions in eight countries. The results are four-fold. First, the yield curve predicts future recessions in all countries. Second, term spreads forecast...

Remarks at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business Annual U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York City.

Remarks at the New College of Florida 44th Annual Commencement, Sarasota, Florida.

Starting in the early 1990s, several emerging market and transition economies (EMEs) have adopted inflation targeting (IT). In this paper we discuss a number of issues that arise in this context: (a) the definition of IT, (b) the role of preconditions for IT, (c) the use of intermediate exchange...

In this paper we compare the effects of monetary policy on output and prices in the G-7 countries using a parsimonious macroeconometric model comprising output, prices and a short-term interest rate. We identify monetary policy shocks by assuming that they do not affect real output...

Starting in the early 1990s, several emerging market and transition economies (EMEs) have adopted inflation targeting (IT). In this Paper we discuss a number of issues that arise in this context: (a) the definition of IT, (b) the role of preconditions for IT, (c) the use of intermediate exchange...