We wish to understand the implications of recent shifts in US productivity for the structure of optimal monetary policy rules. Accordingly, we augment a standard inflation targeting model in which a forward-looking version of the Taylor rule constitutes the optimal monetary policy with regime...

We study how the use of judgement or add-factors in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which "exuberance equilibria" exist in standard macroeconomic environments. These equilibria may...

We study how the use of judgement or "add-factors" in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in standard macroeconomic...

After the current quantitative easing program ends, it would be natural for the FOMC to put monetary policy on hold.

"Death of a Theory," presented in St. Louis. January 13, 2012.

15th Annual Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference,> Hong Kong, March 23, 2012

March 2, 2012. Presentation. "The U.S. Economy in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis." Presented at the Bank of Montreal Lecture in Economics, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, British Columbia.

April 5, 2012. Presented at the InvestMidwest Venture Capital Forum, St. Louis.

"SNEAK PREVIEW: Death of a Theory." Presented at the Korea-America Economic Association, Chicago, Illinois. January 7, 2012.

February 24, 2012. "Comments on 'Housing, Monetary Policy, and the Recovery' by Michael Feroli, Ethan Harris, Amir Sufi, and Kenneth West." Given at the 2012 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, Initiative on Global Markets, University of Chicago Booth School of Business.