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Using Consensus Forecasts monthly surveys, we show that experts' interest rate expectations in the Eurofranc market do … not verify the rational expectations hypothesis. Instead, these expectations are found to be generated by a mixed process …, money). This mixed expectational process is shown to verify the term structure relation of interest rates based on the …
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We propose methods for testing hypothesis of non-causality at various horizons, as defined in Dufour and Renault (1998, Econometrica). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at different horizons. While the hypotheses...
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inflation. Excess liquidity, rather than heading towards the market of consumer goods, could have moved towards the asset … prices, and the extension of the quantitative equation of money to transactions on assets does not stabilize the money …
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