We propose methods for testing hypothesis of non-causality at various horizons, as defined in Dufour and Renault (1998, Econometrica). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at different horizons. While the hypotheses...

Deux indicateurs sont proposés, le premier (IPCA, indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération) visant à détecter les phases de ralentissement et d’accélération de l’ensemble de l’activité économique, le second (IPRI, indicateur probabiliste de récession industrielle) les...

This paper proposes a new empirical representation of inflation expectations errors in a Space-State Markov-Switching framework. We explicitly identify the dynamics of inflation expectation errors using the expectations augmented Markov-Switching Phillips curve as a measurement equation. In this...

This paper proposes two new coincident probabilistic cyclical indicators developed by the Bank of France in order to follow, on a monthly basis, the French economic activity. The first one is an indicator which aims at detecting the turning points of the acceleration cycle while the second one...

This paper investigates the implications of cross-country heterogeneity within the euro area for the design of optimal monetary policy. We build an optimizing-based multi-country model (MCM) describing the euro area in which differences between structural parameters across countries are allowed....

Outre le suivi régulier du comportement d’offre de prêts des banques et des déterminants de la demande de leur clientèle, l’enquête sur la distribution du crédit permet d’établir des indicateurs avancés des évolutions à court terme des encours de crédit.

Aux États-Unis, l’information issue des séries financières, qui reflètent les anticipations des agents basées sur l’information économique disponible, permet de bien prévoir la survenance de retournements conjoncturels.

This article aims at estimating leading indicators of the American economy with financial variables. We use two types of hidden Markov chains models, a quantitative one (Krolzig (1997)) and a qualitative one (Gregoir and Lenglart (2000)). These models provide a robust and reliable framework to...

The present paper investigates the dynamic effects of disinflation shocks for a number of real macroeconomic variables in the euro area. Using structural VARs, we identify disinflation shocks as the only shocks that can exert a long--run effect on inflation as well as other nominal variables...