Le développement de la gestion du risque fondée sur la VaR (Value at Risk) sert de cadre à un ensemble de mesures de performances ajustées pour le risque. L'article présente les mesures de base et leurs propriétés. Le rapprochement de la gestion du risque avec la gestion de portefeuille...

This paper asks whether external shocks (U.S. interest rates, U.S. industrial production, U.S. stocks prices and world industrial material price) have asymmetric effects on European relative prices (real exchange rates). On 1979-1993 period, the paper finds that two groups of countries may be...

This study compares the predictive performance of the conditional forecasting technique against the unconditional technique. The conditional technique consist of taking into account the information available on an endogenous variable over part of the forecast horizon. We develop a Bayesian VAR...

The main objective of this study is to look for the best model for forecasting inflation rate and real growth for each CEMAC country. Using AR, VAR and BVAR models, it is clear from our study that forecasts made from Bayesian models have a higher predictive power than those made by classical...

This study sheds light on the effect of fiscal policy on the Ivorian economy by measuring the value of the different Keynesian multipliers and the possible origins of GDP fluctuation during the period of this study. For this paper, one preferred a Bayesian estimation of a Dynamic Stochastic...