L’ISMA est un des principaux outils de diagnostic conjoncturel de la Banque de France. Publié chaque mois, il estime la croissance du PIB français pour le prochain trimestre, en se basant sur les données d’enquêtes de la Banque de France.

The quarterly industrial investment survey constitutes one of the main sources of information for the short-term economic analysis of industrial firms investment. However, its main questions are annual. Therefore, the use of this surveys results for the forecasting of investment on a quarterly...

The level of government debt in Canada relative to gross domestic product has risen steadily since the mid-1970s. Canada has not been alone in experiencing rising government indebtedness, but in comparison to other countries, Canada's debt load is now distinctly on the high side. The author...

Historically, rapid and unsustainable increases in the demand for goods and services originating within the economies of Canada's major trading partners have had a significant impact on the domestic economy. These episodes are typically characterized by increases in world commodity prices and by...

Le modèle OPTIM permet de prévoir, chaque mois, les taux de croissance du PIB de la France et de ses principales composantes, pour le trimestre en cours et le trimestre suivant. Ce modèle mobilise un large éventail de données macro-économiques mensuelles et de données d’enquête,...

This study is devoted to the analysis of the main effects, on the Belgian economy, of various forms of tax shifting aimed at increasing taxes on energy and decreasing other taxes(mainly taxes on labour). Results show that, if the increase in energy taxes is combined with a reduction of taxes on...

Le crédit interentreprises est un des canaux de transmission du risque de défaillance des entreprises. Les impayés sur effets de commerce révèlent les interdépendances entre secteurs et leur potentiel de contagion, dès lors que les montants en jeu sont importants.

The forecasting literature has identified three important and broad issues: the predictive content is unstable over time, in-sample and out-of-sample discordant results and the problematic statistical inference with highly persistent predictors. In this paper, we simultaneously address these...