Showing 1 - 10 of 352
, Econometrica). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at … applied to a VAR model of the U.S. economy. Nous proposons des méthodes pour tester des hypothèses de non-causalité à … différents horizons, tel que défini dans Dufour et Renault (1998, Econometrica). Nous étudions le cas des modèles VAR en détail …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100843
In this paper, we study the asymptotic distribution of a simple two-stage (Hannan-Rissanen-type) linear estimator for stationary invertible vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models in the echelon form representation. General conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100706
Summary: The European Union absorbs nearly 75% of Tunisian exports and represents about 50% of Tunisian imports, which explains the important weight of the euro in the Tunisian dinar anchor basket. Thus, the purpose of this article is to predict short-term exchange rate fluctuations EUR/TND,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015258910
Cet article vise à évaluer la croissance potentielle en France, en Allemagne et en zone euro au cours de la période postérieure à la crise de crédit de 2007-2008 jusqu’à l’horizon de prévision 2012. Une telle évaluation joue en effet un rôle central dans celle du déficit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009195335
The present paper investigates the dynamic effects of disinflation shocks for a number of real macroeconomic variables in the euro area. Using structural VARs, we identify disinflation shocks as the only shocks that can exert a long--run effect on inflation as well as other nominal variables...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008531414
The objective of this paper is to determine the relative importance of aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks to fluctuations of real growth in CEMAC. The factual analysis of growth in the subregion over the last 20 years shows a dependence on oil prices whose e!ects on growth are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015269506
In this paper, we estimate a SVAR model to analyze the trend of underlying inflation in the Democratic Republic of Congo and follow the identification approach of Blanchard and Quah (1989) to impose long-run restrictions. Thus, we use Congolese data on the growth rate of activity and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015229355
We consider the VaR associated with the global loss generated by a set risk sources. We propose a sequence of simple …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008531416
Statistical tests in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are typically based on large-sample approximations, involving … general simulation-based technique that allows one to control completely the level of tests in parametric VAR models. In … considered as special cases. The technique developed is applied to quarterly and monthly VAR models of the U.S. economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100698
. Our approach is different, as it rests on the estimation of a bivariate VAR. Variables used are the budget balance in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009001123