Outre le suivi régulier du comportement d’offre de prêts des banques et des déterminants de la demande de leur clientèle, l’enquête sur la distribution du crédit permet d’établir des indicateurs avancés des évolutions à court terme des encours de crédit.

Estimating mixture models still raises numerous questions, both theoretical and empirical. However, this class of model appears quite powerful for a parcimonious modelization of ill-behaved distribution, as it is the case with loans rate vis-à-vis the private sector collected by the Banque de...

This paper investigates the properties of the decomposition of a time series presented in a companion paper (Lacroix, (2008)). The procedure relies upon an extension of Beveridge-Nelson methodology. We focus on its empirical implementation and show the need for additional steps in order to...

The analysis of seasonality in economics and the development of new seasonal adjustment procedures have been following new directions in the last twenty years. We study this question through the work performed at the Banque de France (Monetary Statistic and Studies Directorate) to compile new...

Short-term analysis is generally performed with seasonally adjusted data from which further estimation of the business cycle is performed through well-known filters (HP, Baxter-King). However, the whole procedure is not fully consistent, because seasonal adjustment and trend-cycle estimation do...