We estimate the reaction function of monetary policy in the Euro area and derive the Taylor-type policy rule that a would-be ECB would have followed since the beginning of the European Monetary System (1979-2003). We first follow the standard GMM methodology developed by Clarida, Galí and...

Euro area countries as a whole have experienced a marked downward trend over the 1980s. Over this period, the unemployment rate has increased and economic activity has been sluggish. Changes in the implicit inflation target, viewed as low frequency movements of inflation, might possibly explain...

According to the quantitative theory of money, an expansion of the money supply leads both to a decrease of interest rates and an increase of the general level of good prices. This negative correlation expected between these two variables being contradicted by the positive correlation observed...

In this article we estimate a time-varying " natural " rate of interest (TVNRI) for a synthetic euro area over the period 1979Q1-2002Q4 using a small backward-looking macroeconomic model, broadly following a methodology developed by Laubach and Williams (2003) for the United States. The Kalman...

French abstract: Par un arrêt très attendu « Peter Gauweiler c/ Deutscher Bundestag » du 16 juin 2015 (affaire C-62/14), la Cour de justice de l'Union européenne (CJUE) a statué à titre préjudiciel sur une mesure de politique monétaire non conventionnelle menée par la Banque centrale...

This note takes part in the debate on the topic “a macroeconomics without LM”. It shows that, when the central bank does not control directly the interest rates on the money and financial markets, LM curve has another role to play than to determine in an endogenous way the money supply when...

The objective of this paper is the estimation of the Cenral Bank of Morocco reaction function. Several specifications were tested to finaly retain a dynamic forwad looking rule estimated by the method of generalized moments and considering imported inflation.

The effects of monetary policy on economic performance have long attracted the attention of economists and policy makers. The literature identifies different ways of understanding the monetary transmission mechanisms. They vary according to the importance given to interest rates, credits,...

In an uncertain economic environment, long-term interest rates appear to be highly volatile and their sensitivity towards short-term interest rates appears to be still ambiguous. The aim of this work is to analyze this relationship, and to evaluate the impact of short-term interest rate on...

In an uncertain economic environment, long-term interest rates appear to be highly volatile and their sensitivity towards short-term interest rates appears to be still ambiguous. The aim of this work is to analyze this relationship, and to evaluate the impact of short-term interest rate on...