We propose methods for testing hypothesis of non-causality at various horizons, as defined in Dufour and Renault (1998, Econometrica). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at different horizons. While the hypotheses...

Summary: The European Union absorbs nearly 75% of Tunisian exports and represents about 50% of Tunisian imports, which explains the important weight of the euro in the Tunisian dinar anchor basket. Thus, the purpose of this article is to predict short-term exchange rate fluctuations EUR/TND,...

In this paper, we study the asymptotic distribution of a simple two-stage (Hannan-Rissanen-type) linear estimator for stationary invertible vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models in the echelon form representation. General conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality are...

Stating and discussing on preserving Monetary stability is other thing equal an Old and interesting debate for African countries States where since the coming of an African Monetary Fund this ambition to have a common Currency unit at the scale of the geographic area is an unbelieve and...

Some facts embedding particularly in the UIP relation lies at the heart of this kind of cooperation on the aspect of Money because this can help to assess the competition necessary between the anchor economy and the one’s who is pegged to his currency in the convolution of this Old parity...

In this paper, we estimate a SVAR model to analyze the trend of underlying inflation in the Democratic Republic of Congo and follow the identification approach of Blanchard and Quah (1989) to impose long-run restrictions. Thus, we use Congolese data on the growth rate of activity and the...

The aim of this work was to estimate a DSGE-SOE model for the DR Congo by referring to the Bayesian techniques for the quarterly data from 2002q1 to 2016q4 in order to analyze the relations between the main macroeconomic variables and to simulate the " impact of some major shocks on their...

The objective of this paper is to determine the relative importance of aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks to fluctuations of real growth in CEMAC. The factual analysis of growth in the subregion over the last 20 years shows a dependence on oil prices whose e!ects on growth are...

The methodology of cointegration filled the void that existed between economic theorists and econometricians in understanding the dynamics, equilibrium and reliability bias of macroeconomic and financial analysis, which is subject to revision non-stationary behavior. This article provides a...

Are the cfa franc zone member’s much closed by their currency or by their economic structure? This is the main question of this paper. In other words, the difficulty to have a common monetary policy and idiosyncratic national fiscal policies, for a monetary area, can be feasible in cfa franc...