The forecasting literature has identified three important and broad issues: the predictive content is unstable over time, in-sample and out-of-sample discordant results and the problematic statistical inference with highly persistent predictors. In this paper, we simultaneously address these...

The quarterly industrial investment survey constitutes one of the main sources of information for the short-term economic analysis of industrial firms investment. However, its main questions are annual. Therefore, the use of this surveys results for the forecasting of investment on a quarterly...

We propose methods for testing hypothesis of non-causality at various horizons, as defined in Dufour and Renault (1998, Econometrica). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at different horizons. While the hypotheses...

This paper proposes a new nonparametric test for conditional independence, which is based on the comparison of Bernstein copula densities using the Hellinger distance. The test is easy to implement because it does not involve a weighting function in the test statistic, and it can be applied in...

While the relationship between inflation and relative price variability (RPV) has been widely investigated in developed and emerging market economies because of its direct relevance to monetary policy implementation, research has neglected this linkage in most developing countries especially in...

Inflation targeting (IT) has become the dominant monetary policy framework around the world and most of the countries that have adopted it have successfully improved their monetary policy regime. The objective of this paper is to assess WAMZ member countries' readiness to adopt inflation...

In this paper we study the impact of the Basel III liquidity regulations, namely the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), on the bank lending channel in Luxembourg. For this aim we built, based on individual bank data, time series of the LCR and NSFR for a...

We build a model with frictional unemployment and staggered wage bargaining and we assume that hours worked are negotiated every period. We analyze the role of workers? bargaining power in the hours negotiation on unemployment volatility and inflation persistence. The closer to zero is this...

While the relationship between inflation and relative price variability (RPV) has been widely investigated in developed and emerging market economies because of its direct relevance to monetary policy implementation, research has neglected this linkage in most developing countries especially in...

Inflation targeting (IT) has become the dominant monetary policy framework around the world and most of the countries that have adopted it have successfully improved their monetary policy regime. The objective of this paper is to assess WAMZ member countries' readiness to adopt inflation...