Cette étude spéciale dresse un bilan de l’évolution de la crise financière qui secoue l’économie mondiale depuis l’été 2007. Partie de l’immobilier aux États-Unis, elle s’est rapidement propagée à l’ensemble du système financier par le biais des mécanismes de titrisation....

Comme l’a montré la crise actuelle, les marchés immobiliers sont à l’origine de chocs macroéconomiques importants, ce qui justifie un suivi régulier du double point de vue de la politique monétaire et de la stabilité financière.

The Economic Cycle Theory, having been a somehow abandoned during several decades, returns to get important with the recent World Financial Crisis 2007-2010. This book, based upon a theses sustained in 2007, advances and argues the possibility of an almost unavoidable world cyclic plunge of...

The Economic Cycle Theory, having been a somehow abandoned during several decades, returns to get important with the recent World Financial Crisis 2007-2010. This book, based upon a theses sustained in 2007, advances and argues the possibility of an almost unavoidable world cyclic plunge of...

The Economic Cycle Theory, having been a somehow abandoned during several decades, returns to get important with the recent World Financial Crisis 2007-2010. This book, based upon a theses sustained in 2007, advances and argues the possibility of an almost unavoidable world cyclic plunge of...

The Economic Cycle Theory, having been a somehow abandoned during several decades, returns to get important with the recent World Financial Crisis 2007-2010. This book, based upon a theses sustained in 2007, advances and argues the possibility of an almost unavoidable world cyclic plunge of...

Aux États-Unis, l’information issue des séries financières, qui reflètent les anticipations des agents basées sur l’information économique disponible, permet de bien prévoir la survenance de retournements conjoncturels.

This article puts forward a framework based primarily on probabilistic tools to analyse the nature of housing loan cycles in France. The continued high growth rate of housing loans may indeed raise concerns as to the duration and determinants of the cycle which currently prevails. The results...

This article aims at estimating leading indicators of the American economy with financial variables. We use two types of hidden Markov chains models, a quantitative one (Krolzig (1997)) and a qualitative one (Gregoir and Lenglart (2000)). These models provide a robust and reliable framework to...

This paper sheds a new light on the puzzling negative relationship between nominal stock returns and expected inflation. The assertion that stocks offer a hedge against inflation is theoretically founded on the Fisher identity. Contrary to this fundamental view, recent empirical tests reject...