Statistical tests in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are typically based on large-sample approximations, involving the use of asymptotic distributions or bootstrap techniques. After documenting that such methods can be very misleading even with fairly large samples, especially when the number...

We propose methods for testing hypothesis of non-causality at various horizons, as defined in Dufour and Renault (1998, Econometrica). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at different horizons. While the hypotheses...

French Abstract: L'objectif de cet article est d'étudier le lien de causalité entre l'approfondissement financier de l'intermédiation financière bancaire et la croissance économique dans le cas de la Tunisie. Les données utilisées sont de périodicités annuelles et s'étalent de 1980 à...

French Abstract: L'objectif de cet article est d'étudier le lien de causalité entre l'approfondissement financier de l'intermédiation financière bancaire et la croissance économique dans le cas de la Tunisie. Les données utilisées sont de périodicités annuelles et s'étalent de 1980 à...

We consider testing for long-run homogeneity within a dynamic consumer demand system allowing for non-stationarities. The static long-run solution is assumed to follow the Linear Almost Ideal Demand System and we test for long-run homogeneity within this system utilizing a triangular...

We consider the problem of testing whether the observations X1, · · ·, Xn of a time series are independent with unspecified (possibly nonidentical) distributions symmetric about a common known median. Various bounds on the distributions of serial correlation coefficients are proposed:...

In this paper, we develop finite-sample inference procedures for stationary and nonstationary autoregressive (AR) models. The method is based on special properties of Markov processes and a split-sample technique. The results on Markovian processes (intercalary independence and truncation) only...

Stock exchange industry consolidation is at work since many years and has recently accelerated through competition for order flows, agreements and mergers. However, consolidation may not mean that all shocks are transmitted to every place. Therefore, following Forbes and Rigobon (2002) we...

In this paper, we use the segmented conditional ICAPM (International Capital Asset Pricing Model) to study the emerging stock markets integration. To address this issue, we apply the asymmetric multivariate version of GARCH-BEKK with structural break of the variance. It allows to specify the...

Business surveys aim at getting, as quickly and as simply as possible, the recent and probable changes in economic activity. Answers to most of the questions are qualitative with three modalities (qualification of an evolution: up / stable / down). The qualitative indicators provided by these...