In this article, we analyze the US short term real interest rate series for the last five decades in the framework of a M-SETAR model (Momentum - Self Exciting Threshold Auto-Regressive). With the aim of disentangling the non-linearity from the non-stationarity cases, we use threshold...

The objective of the paper is to investigate to what extent business cycles co-move in Germany, France and Italy. We use a large-scale database of non-stationary series for the euro area in order to assess the effect of common versus idiosyncratic shocks, as well as transitory versus permanent...

In this paper, we consider testing marginal normal distributional assumptions. More precisely, we propose tests based on moment conditions implied by normality. These moment conditions are known as the Stein (1972) equations. They coincide with the first class of moment conditions derived by...

We consider the problem of determining the horizon beyond which forecasts from time series models of stationary processes add nothing to the forecast implicit in the conditional mean. We refer to this as the content horizon for forecasts, and define a forecast content function at horizons s = 1,...

We consider the problem of testing whether the observations X1, · · ·, Xn of a time series are independent with unspecified (possibly nonidentical) distributions symmetric about a common known median. Various bounds on the distributions of serial correlation coefficients are proposed:...

In this paper, we develop finite-sample inference procedures for stationary and nonstationary autoregressive (AR) models. The method is based on special properties of Markov processes and a split-sample technique. The results on Markovian processes (intercalary independence and truncation) only...

French Abstract: L'objectif de cet article est d'étudier le lien de causalité entre l'approfondissement financier de l'intermédiation financière bancaire et la croissance économique dans le cas de la Tunisie. Les données utilisées sont de périodicités annuelles et s'étalent de 1980 à...