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La littérature sur l'instabilité macroéconomique couvre un champ extrêmement vaste qui se révèle par le spectre très large de mesures utilisées pour appréhender ce phénomène. Le choix de la mesure de l'instabilité macroéconomique apparait généralement peu discuté sous le...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014000796
L’ISMA est un des principaux outils de diagnostic conjoncturel de la Banque de France. Publié chaque mois, il estime la croissance du PIB français pour le prochain trimestre, en se basant sur les données d’enquêtes de la Banque de France.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009201078
This paper proposes new bridge equations for the Monthly Index of Business Activity (MIBA) published by the Banque de France. The MIBA is a forecasting tool for the quarterly GDP growth in France both for the current quarter and the next quarter, originally based on the surveys in the industrial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998824
In this paper, the author describes reduced-form linear and non-linear econometric models developed to forecast and analyze quarterly data on output growth in the Canadian manufacturing sector from 1981 to 2003. Empirical evidence reported in the paper suggests that economic activity in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005162516
contributed to refine empirical results particularly the estimation of demand elasticity, and to improve prediction accuracy. … le Modèle Structurel de Base et l'approche de Harvey (1990) comme stratégie d'estimation et de prévision. Nous avons … empiriques notamment en ce qui concerne l'estimation des élasticités de la demande, et à améliorer la précision des prévisions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005595841
Short-term analysts use many tools to forecast economic activity. Among these tools, estimating and, then, simulating univariate models is very common. Most of the time the series used for the variable of interest as well as for the regressors are last available releases. Except for the latter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008466036
Using methods from machine learning we show that fundamentals from simple exchange rate models (PPP or UIRP) or Taylor-rule based models lead to improved exchange rate forecasts for major currencies over the floating period era 1973--2014 at a 1-month forecast horizon which beat the no-change...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010499680
Confronted by increasingly tight budgets and a broad range of alternative options, policy makers need empirical methods to evaluate the effectiveness of policies aimed at supporting the diffusion of renewable energy sources (RES). Rigorous empirical studies of renewable energy policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010501409