In this article, we analyze the US short term real interest rate series for the last five decades in the framework of a M-SETAR model (Momentum - Self Exciting Threshold Auto-Regressive). With the aim of disentangling the non-linearity from the non-stationarity cases, we use threshold...

L’ISMA est un des principaux outils de diagnostic conjoncturel de la Banque de France. Publié chaque mois, il estime la croissance du PIB français pour le prochain trimestre, en se basant sur les données d’enquêtes de la Banque de France.

In this paper, we estimate and analyse a set of equations of French inflation for forecasting purpose at the horizon of three months, six months and one year. A different equation is associated to each horizon. This approach has the advantage of modeling directly the variable of interest at the...

This paper first presents a time-series analysis of factors influencing aggregate health care expenditure in some OECD countries. We focus on supply-side factors (especially the diffusion of medical technologies) and first estimate a single model on six countries. The results suggest that...

This paper provides evidence based on French macroeconomic data, that shocks on the cost of oil inputs are transmitted asymmetrically to the prices of fuel. We use an error correction model to estimate the dynamics of the transmission of the cost of crude oil expressed in French currency, to the...

L’île de La Réunion, région française ultrapériphérique, se caractérise par des performances économiques généralement en deçà de celles de la métropole, mais aussi de celles de partenaires commerciaux qui partagent nombre de caractéristiques communes. Le très fort déficit de la...

The economic situation of all the major developed countries has changed significantly during the 2007-2010 period. Yet many economic policies have been kept in place. This is true in particular of a key measure in French government policy: tax reductions on overtime hours and their exemption...

L’enquête mensuelle de conjoncture de la Banque de France présente chaque mois un indicateur du climat des affaires dans l’industrie. Un indicateur similaire a été construit pour les services, en appliquant une méthode analogue, à savoir l’extraction d’un facteur d’évolution qui...

This paper analyses the pricing behaviour of Luxembourg firms based on survey evidence. Luxembourg firms typically have low market share, many competitors and longstanding customer relationships. Price discrimination is frequently applied. A majority of firms use price review rules that include...