La littérature sur l'instabilité macroéconomique couvre un champ extrêmement vaste qui se révèle par le spectre très large de mesures utilisées pour appréhender ce phénomène. Le choix de la mesure de l'instabilité macroéconomique apparait généralement peu discuté sous le...

In order to provide medium run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for the euro area, we assess the usefulness of dynamic factor models. We use Stock and Watson's (1999) out-of-sample methodology for models estimated over the 1988:1-2002:3 period, with balanced and unbalanced panels....

Short-term analysts use many tools to forecast economic activity. Among these tools, estimating and, then, simulating univariate models is very common. Most of the time the series used for the variable of interest as well as for the regressors are last available releases. Except for the latter...

The forecast of world economic growth plays a key role in the conduct of Canadian monetary policy. In this context, the authors study the usefulness of the monthly Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) in predicting short-term real GDP growth in the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and...

French Abstract: Cette étude analyse la production du secteur informel non-agricole camerounais et détermine dans quelle mesure son efficience peut contribuer à améliorer les niveaux de vie au Cameroun. A cet effet, les techniques d'enveloppement des données (Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA)...

The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of household income on private transfers in Russia on the basis of altruism, exchange and risk sharing hypotheses. Econometrical investigations, with Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey data for 2002, show that private transfers can’t be...

French Abstract: Le travail des enfants demeure une préoccupation pour les décideurs compte tenu de ses interrelations sur le plan microéconomique et macroéconomique. L'objectif de cette étude est de comparer les effets de la pauvreté des ménages à ceux de la qualité de l'école. Ainsi,...

Estimating mixture models still raises numerous questions, both theoretical and empirical. However, this class of model appears quite powerful for a parcimonious modelization of ill-behaved distribution, as it is the case with loans rate vis-à-vis the private sector collected by the Banque de...

In this work we study the effect of several covariates X on a censored response variable T with unknown probability distribution. A semiparametric model is proposed to consider situations where the functional form of the effect of one or more covariates is unknown. We provide its estimation...