The author describes results obtained by using a new methodology to estimate potential output for the United Kingdom. The estimation method, which follows Rennison (2003) and Gosselin and Lalonde (2002), shows that combining the use of a Hodrick-Prescott filter and a structural vector...

Aux États-Unis, l’information issue des séries financières, qui reflètent les anticipations des agents basées sur l’information économique disponible, permet de bien prévoir la survenance de retournements conjoncturels.

This article puts forward a framework based primarily on probabilistic tools to analyse the nature of housing loan cycles in France. The continued high growth rate of housing loans may indeed raise concerns as to the duration and determinants of the cycle which currently prevails. The results...

This article aims at estimating leading indicators of the American economy with financial variables. We use two types of hidden Markov chains models, a quantitative one (Krolzig (1997)) and a qualitative one (Gregoir and Lenglart (2000)). These models provide a robust and reliable framework to...

The persistence of high rates of unemployment calls for a discussion of the tax treatment of production factors. In France as in many other countries, material productive resources are subject to a legally recoverable tax, VAT, whereas unrecoverable obligatory social levies strike human...

L’explication des liens et différences entre valeur ajoutée des banques mesurée par la comptabilité nationale, et produit net bancaire, calculé selon les principes comptables des établissements de crédit, permet de construire une table de passage pour réconcilier ces indicateurs...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) fails to account for the trading gains and losses that result from changes in the terms of trade and in the real exchange rate (the price of tradables relative to the price of nontradables). Canada has enjoyed vast improvements in its terms of trade over recent...

In this article, we present a brief history of the development of services industry data in the United States, review the substantial progress that has been made over the past decade and a half, and present recommendations for needed additional improvements. We conclude that the state of U.S....