We propose methods for testing hypothesis of non-causality at various horizons, as defined in Dufour and Renault (1998, Econometrica). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at different horizons. While the hypotheses...

We consider the problem of testing whether the observations X1, · · ·, Xn of a time series are independent with unspecified (possibly nonidentical) distributions symmetric about a common known median. Various bounds on the distributions of serial correlation coefficients are proposed:...

La littérature sur l'instabilité macroéconomique couvre un champ extrêmement vaste qui se révèle par le spectre très large de mesures utilisées pour appréhender ce phénomène. Le choix de la mesure de l'instabilité macroéconomique apparait généralement peu discuté sous le...

Since July 2003, the Banque de France has been using seasonally adjusted (SA) data for the monthly reporting of national monetary developments, with renewed statistical tools. Before the start of the single currency in 1999, the Banque de France already calculated seasonally adjusted data, using...

The analysis of seasonality in economics and the development of new seasonal adjustment procedures have been following new directions in the last twenty years. We study this question through the work performed at the Banque de France (Monetary Statistic and Studies Directorate) to compile new...

This paper investigates the implications of cross-country heterogeneity within the euro area for the design of optimal monetary policy. We build an optimizing-based multi-country model (MCM) describing the euro area in which differences between structural parameters across countries are allowed....

Given a monetary Union which is heterogeneous at the level of labour market flexibility, this paper investigates the effects in terms of macroeconomic stabilization of the different degrees of fiscal coordination between governments. We use a static Keynesian model within a closed monetary Union...

This eighth issue of the International Productivity Monitor produced by the Centre for the Study of Living Standards contains eight articles. Topics covered are: a progress report on endogenous growth theory; recent productivity developments in Canada and the United States; monetary policy in...

Government balances are often adjusted for changes in economic activity in order to draw a clearer picture of the underlying fiscal situation and to use this as a guide to fiscal policy analysis. International organisations estimate the cyclical component of economic activity by the current...