Showing 1 - 10 of 245
This article puts forward a framework based primarily on probabilistic tools to analyse the nature of housing loan cycles in France. The continued high growth rate of housing loans may indeed raise concerns as to the duration and determinants of the cycle which currently prevails. The results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998836
The Central Bank of Congo (BCC) lowered policy rate in response to uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. The impact of the pandemic on the economy is uncertain and depends on several factors. This cut in the policy rate would not help the economy to limit the fallout from COVID-19, so we should...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015252446
This article aims at estimating leading indicators of the American economy with financial variables. We use two types of hidden Markov chains models, a quantitative one (Krolzig (1997)) and a qualitative one (Gregoir and Lenglart (2000)). These models provide a robust and reliable framework to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005056509
Aux États-Unis, l’information issue des séries financières, qui reflètent les anticipations des agents basées sur l’information économique disponible, permet de bien prévoir la survenance de retournements conjoncturels.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009220164
This paper analyzes the causal relationships between returns and volatilities of assets prices in U.S. and French markets. The period for the study has been taken from January 1997 to December 2000, using daily and weekly data. Initial results show that U.S. stock prices "Granger-cause" French...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015226556
Outre le suivi régulier du comportement d’offre de prêts des banques et des déterminants de la demande de leur clientèle, l’enquête sur la distribution du crédit permet d’établir des indicateurs avancés des évolutions à court terme des encours de crédit.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009209785
This working paper presents a new coincident economic indicator developed by the COE, able to detect in real time peaks and troughs of the american business cycle. This probabilistic indicator is based on the Markov-Switching model proposed by Hamilton (1989), applied to various economic time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015233186
This paper focuses on the synchronization of supply and demand shocks in West Africa given the willingness of ECOWAS Heads of State to create a single currency by 2020. Based on the methodology of Blanchard and Quah (1989), the paper relies on structural autoregressive vector models (SVAR) to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015264741
The author describes results obtained by using a new methodology to estimate potential output for the United Kingdom. The estimation method, which follows Rennison (2003) and Gosselin and Lalonde (2002), shows that combining the use of a Hodrick-Prescott filter and a structural vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005536879
This paper proposes two new coincident probabilistic cyclical indicators developed by the Bank of France in order to follow, on a monthly basis, the French economic activity. The first one is an indicator which aims at detecting the turning points of the acceleration cycle while the second one...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998816