The main purpose of this paper is to determine the macro-prudential indicators of financial strength that can be used under supervision of the banking system in CEMAC. More specifically, we start from a set of indicators listed in the literature on macro-prudential supervision, and identify...

In this paper, we study real wage fluctuations in response to monetary shocks. We estimate five different models corresponding to five sets of monetary policy restrictions. Monetary shocks are measured by innovations in the nominal interest rate, total reserves and non-borrowed reserves. Our...

The originality of this paper is to provide the first analysis of the money multiplier in CEMAC zone. The money and its evolution is connected to the macroeconomic, monetary and financial situation. We have found that the money supply and the monetary base are linked in the long run in all the...

This study compares the predictive performance of the conditional forecasting technique against the unconditional technique. The conditional technique consist of taking into account the information available on an endogenous variable over part of the forecast horizon. We develop a Bayesian VAR...

The main purpose of this paper is to study the economics of interchange fee in payment card association. The different arrangements for interchange fees and the nosurcharge rule lower the level of competition intensity that would otherwise have occurred and push interchange fees up. In many...

French Abstract: Cette étude a pour but d'évaluer la pertinence et le contenu prédictif des indicateurs de l'enquête qualitative trimestrielle auprès des banques sur la distribution du crédit (autrement dit le Bank Lending Survey ou BLS), dix ans après son lancement simultané dans tous...

The objective of the paper is to investigate to what extent business cycles co-move in Germany, France and Italy. We use a large-scale database of non-stationary series for the euro area in order to assess the effect of common versus idiosyncratic shocks, as well as transitory versus permanent...

We consider the VaR associated with the global loss generated by a set risk sources. We propose a sequence of simple models incorporating progressively the notions of contagion due to instantaneous correlations, of serial correlation, of evolution of the instantaneous correlations, of volatility...