La littérature sur l'instabilité macroéconomique couvre un champ extrêmement vaste qui se révèle par le spectre très large de mesures utilisées pour appréhender ce phénomène. Le choix de la mesure de l'instabilité macroéconomique apparait généralement peu discuté sous le...

The economic situation of all the major developed countries has changed significantly during the 2007-2010 period. Yet many economic policies have been kept in place. This is true in particular of a key measure in French government policy: tax reductions on overtime hours and their exemption...

This paper investigates the properties of the decomposition of a time series presented in a companion paper (Lacroix, (2008)). The procedure relies upon an extension of Beveridge-Nelson methodology. We focus on its empirical implementation and show the need for additional steps in order to...

Short-term analysis is generally performed with seasonally adjusted data from which further estimation of the business cycle is performed through well-known filters (HP, Baxter-King). However, the whole procedure is not fully consistent, because seasonal adjustment and trend-cycle estimation do...

Aux États-Unis, l’information issue des séries financières, qui reflètent les anticipations des agents basées sur l’information économique disponible, permet de bien prévoir la survenance de retournements conjoncturels.

This article puts forward a framework based primarily on probabilistic tools to analyse the nature of housing loan cycles in France. The continued high growth rate of housing loans may indeed raise concerns as to the duration and determinants of the cycle which currently prevails. The results...

This article aims at estimating leading indicators of the American economy with financial variables. We use two types of hidden Markov chains models, a quantitative one (Krolzig (1997)) and a qualitative one (Gregoir and Lenglart (2000)). These models provide a robust and reliable framework to...

The Economic Cycle Theory, having been a somehow abandoned during several decades, returns to get important with the recent World Financial Crisis 2007-2010. This book, based upon a theses sustained in 2007, advances and argues the possibility of an almost unavoidable world cyclic plunge of...

The Economic Cycle Theory, having been a somehow abandoned during several decades, returns to get important with the recent World Financial Crisis 2007-2010. This book, based upon a theses sustained in 2007, advances and argues the possibility of an almost unavoidable world cyclic plunge of...

The Economic Cycle Theory, having been a somehow abandoned during several decades, returns to get important with the recent World Financial Crisis 2007-2010. This book, based upon a theses sustained in 2007, advances and argues the possibility of an almost unavoidable world cyclic plunge of...