In this paper, we estimate and analyse a set of equations of French inflation for forecasting purpose at the horizon of three months, six months and one year. A different equation is associated to each horizon. This approach has the advantage of modeling directly the variable of interest at the...

While much attention has focused on the factors that brought about the so-called new economy, much less attention has been paid to optimal policy responses following the establishment of the new economy. In the third article, Gilbert Cette and Christian Pfister from the Bank of France provide...

This study on overinvestment differs from the existing literature in that investment in machinery and equipment is modelled as a structural vector autoregression with identification achieved by imposing long-run restrictions, as in Blanchard and Quah (1989). The transitory components obtained...

In this paper, the authors use polynomial adjustment cost (PAC) models to analyze and forecast the main components of the U.S. trade sector. For instance, they model and measure the elasticities of imports and exports to changes in the exchange rate and income. PAC models provide a theoretical...

Cet article vise à évaluer la croissance potentielle en France, en Allemagne et en zone euro au cours de la période postérieure à la crise de crédit de 2007-2008 jusqu’à l’horizon de prévision 2012. Une telle évaluation joue en effet un rôle central dans celle du déficit...

The present paper investigates the dynamic effects of disinflation shocks for a number of real macroeconomic variables in the euro area. Using structural VARs, we identify disinflation shocks as the only shocks that can exert a long--run effect on inflation as well as other nominal variables...

Selon la maquette d’inflation pour la zone euro développée à la Banque de France, la reprise de l’inflation sous-jacente en 2007 est la conséquence de tensions cycliques et de la vive progression passée des prix d’importations.

L’évolution de la croissance de l’économie mondiale joue un rôle crucial dans la conduite de la politique monétaire canadienne. À cet égard, les auteurs étudient l’utilité des indices mensuels des directeurs d’achats (PMI) pour la prévision de la croissance du PIB réel à court...

La littérature sur l'instabilité macroéconomique couvre un champ extrêmement vaste qui se révèle par le spectre très large de mesures utilisées pour appréhender ce phénomène. Le choix de la mesure de l'instabilité macroéconomique apparait généralement peu discuté sous le...

A large majority of summary indicators derived from the individual responses to qualitative Business Tendency Survey questions (which are mostly three-modality questions) result from standard aggregation and quantification methods. This is typically the case for the indicators called balances of...