The goal of this paper is to gauge the impact of the expected oil price increase on the potential output growth of the French economy in the long run. This potential output exercise is conducted using CES (Constant Elasticity of Substitution) production functions featuring three factors:...

The two oil shocks of the 1970s reduced the GDP growth rate. Since that period, sudden oil price increases have been considered as a major source of economic slowdown. We estimate VAR models and Markov-Switching models to evaluate the impact of oil price increases on French growth. Our results...