The aim of this paper is to build and estimate a macroeconomic model of credit risk for the French manufacturing sector. This model is based on Wilson's CreditPortfolioView model (1997a, 1997b); it enables us to simulate loss distributions for a credit portfolio for several macroeconomic...

Social Security provides insurance against idiosyncratic income risk but exposes workers to systematic risk because benefits are indexed to the evolution of aggregate earnings. I calibrate a life-cycle model to compare workers' certainty equivalent valuation of Social Security to its net present...

Ce papier vise à estimer l'effet des hausses de la durée requise de cotisation des réformes 1993 et 2003 des retraites sur l'allongement de la durée des carrières en France. L'utilisation des données administratives et exhaustives de la CNAV (1994-2003) nous permet de rendre compte...

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of the irreversibility of the retirement decision on labour supply after 60. According to the theory, when the retirement decision is an absorbing state, people tend to remain longer on the labour market to be able to benefit from changes in...

In addition to the pensions delivered by the mandatory social security system, different schemes offer in France the option to purchase private life annuities. These individual annuities are provided by numerous and heterogeneous institutions that rely on more or less rigorous prudential rules...

The microsimulation model Destinie developed at INSEE projects the evolution of a representative sample of the French population up to 2040. It thus proves very useful to assess the effect of pension schemes reforms in the private sector on participation behaviour and financial balances. The...

Exploring the economic consequences of demographic changes is often carried out within simple accounting frameworks. Such approaches consist of projecting the impact of ageing on social security expenditures under exogenous assumptions about economic growth, productivity, wages and employment....

The microsimulation model Destinie developed at INSEE is a privileged tool to assess the effect of pension schemes reforms since it projects the evolution of a representative sample of the French population up to 2040. Up to now, the model was exclusively devoted to the projection of pensions...

The French pension reforms of 1993 and 2003 aimed at moderating futures increases of the pension burden for the population of working age and for public finances. Such a moderation cannot be obtained without any hardening of retirement conditions. At the individual level, the incidence of such...