This working paper presents a new coincident economic indicator developed by the COE, able to detect in real time peaks and troughs of the american business cycle. This probabilistic indicator is based on the Markov-Switching model proposed by Hamilton (1989), applied to various economic time...

The aim of this work was to estimate a DSGE-SOE model for the DR Congo by referring to the Bayesian techniques for the quarterly data from 2002q1 to 2016q4 in order to analyze the relations between the main macroeconomic variables and to simulate the " impact of some major shocks on their...

With increasing energy needs and a continuous rise in hydrocarbon prices, this work aims to evaluate the link between energy and the economy in Madagascar. The enhancement of these links improves the socio-economic impacts of energy policies: what should contribute to development. Electricity,...

The objective of this paper is to determine the relative importance of aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks to fluctuations of real growth in CEMAC. The factual analysis of growth in the subregion over the last 20 years shows a dependence on oil prices whose e!ects on growth are...

This paper proposes two new coincident probabilistic cyclical indicators developed by the Bank of France in order to follow, on a monthly basis, the French economic activity. The first one is an indicator which aims at detecting the turning points of the acceleration cycle while the second one...

We propose methods for testing hypothesis of non-causality at various horizons, as defined in Dufour and Renault (1998, Econometrica). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at different horizons. While the hypotheses...

This paper proposes a new empirical representation of inflation expectations errors in a Space-State Markov-Switching framework. We explicitly identify the dynamics of inflation expectation errors using the expectations augmented Markov-Switching Phillips curve as a measurement equation. In this...

Deux indicateurs sont proposés, le premier (IPCA, indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération) visant à détecter les phases de ralentissement et d’accélération de l’ensemble de l’activité économique, le second (IPRI, indicateur probabiliste de récession industrielle) les...

The performance measurement of portfolio managers is a topic of major importance in finance. The utility of performance measures rests, indeed, on the hypothesis that funds whose performance is judged " good " (or " bad ") in the past, will continue to display of good (bad) performances in the...

The financial market interest several researchers, especially in the domain of assessment of the financial assets and their performances. The previous research identified several anomalies of the market, as size, Monday, January, PER effects, etc. putting in question the notion of market...