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the fluctuations of the growth cycle. It is planned to apply this new indicator to the eurozone in the next future. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015233186
The aim of this work was to estimate a DSGE-SOE model for the DR Congo by referring to the Bayesian techniques for the quarterly data from 2002q1 to 2016q4 in order to analyze the relations between the main macroeconomic variables and to simulate the " impact of some major shocks on their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015257435
: what should contribute to development. Electricity, hydrocarbons and GDP are linked by cointegration equations in the short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015258464
The objective of this paper is to determine the relative importance of aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks to fluctuations of real growth in CEMAC. The factual analysis of growth in the subregion over the last 20 years shows a dependence on oil prices whose e!ects on growth are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015269506
This paper proposes two new coincident probabilistic cyclical indicators developed by the Bank of France in order to follow, on a monthly basis, the French economic activity. The first one is an indicator which aims at detecting the turning points of the acceleration cycle while the second one...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998816
We propose methods for testing hypothesis of non-causality at various horizons, as defined in Dufour and Renault (1998, Econometrica). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at different horizons. While the hypotheses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100843
This paper proposes a new empirical representation of inflation expectations errors in a Space-State Markov-Switching framework. We explicitly identify the dynamics of inflation expectation errors using the expectations augmented Markov-Switching Phillips curve as a measurement equation. In this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005797809
Deux indicateurs sont proposés, le premier (IPCA, indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération) visant à détecter les phases de ralentissement et d’accélération de l’ensemble de l’activité économique, le second (IPRI, indicateur probabiliste de récession industrielle) les...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009225678
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009633216
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003894779