This paper seeks to explore the impact of oil price shocks, real industrial production and interest rate on stock prices for six oil exporting countries and five oil importing countries using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL)model using monthly data for the period 1993 :...

With increasing energy needs and a continuous rise in hydrocarbon prices, this work aims to evaluate the link between energy and the economy in Madagascar. The enhancement of these links improves the socio-economic impacts of energy policies: what should contribute to development. Electricity,...

The two oil shocks of the 1970s reduced the GDP growth rate. Since that period, sudden oil price increases have been considered as a major source of economic slowdown. We estimate VAR models and Markov-Switching models to evaluate the impact of oil price increases on French growth. Our results...

Statistical tests in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are typically based on large-sample approximations, involving the use of asymptotic distributions or bootstrap techniques. After documenting that such methods can be very misleading even with fairly large samples, especially when the number...

We propose methods for testing hypothesis of non-causality at various horizons, as defined in Dufour and Renault (1998, Econometrica). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at different horizons. While the hypotheses...

This article aims to examine the theoretical foundations and practical aspects underlying the creation of a common currency based on natural resources, within the space of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). On July 6, 2024, in Niamey, the leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger signed the...

This article aims to examine the theoretical foundations and practical aspects underlying the creation of a common currency based on natural resources, within the space of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). On July 6, 2024, in Niamey, the leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger signed the...

This paper assesses the shock impact of commodity prices on the macroeconomic framework in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Using a Vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we determine the impulses of each macroeconomic sector to lower prices. The results indicate that this shock leads to...

With the recent fall in commodity prices, the super-dependent economies of commodities, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have been shaken, especially as these countries consider commodity as manna falling from the sky. Movements in commodity prices have led to significant...

French Abstract:Plusieurs matières premières « critiques » jouent un rôle central dans le déploiement detechnologies essentielles à la transition vers une économie bas-carbone. L'approvisionnementfiable et abordable de ces ressources est soumis à des risques du côté de l'offre, face...