This article analysis diversity of growth path for the UE-27 countries, the other Eastern European countries which developed a partnership with UE like Ukraine or Russia, and for the Mediterranean countries (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Turkey) which signed the 1995 Barcelona agreements. The first...

This study describes a simple model for predicting the real U.S. exchange rate. Starting with a large number of error-correction models, the authors choose the one giving the best out-of-sample forecasts over the period 1992Q3 - 2002Q1. In the selected model, the effective real exchange rate is...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) fails to account for the trading gains and losses that result from changes in the terms of trade and in the real exchange rate (the price of tradables relative to the price of nontradables). Canada has enjoyed vast improvements in its terms of trade over recent...

In this article, we present a brief history of the development of services industry data in the United States, review the substantial progress that has been made over the past decade and a half, and present recommendations for needed additional improvements. We conclude that the state of U.S....

This study on overinvestment differs from the existing literature in that investment in machinery and equipment is modelled as a structural vector autoregression with identification achieved by imposing long-run restrictions, as in Blanchard and Quah (1989). The transitory components obtained...

In this paper, the authors use polynomial adjustment cost (PAC) models to analyze and forecast the main components of the U.S. trade sector. For instance, they model and measure the elasticities of imports and exports to changes in the exchange rate and income. PAC models provide a theoretical...

Using the author’s recently constructed data set, this article measures the productivity performance of China’s 19 manufacturing industries, four mining industries, plus utilities, over the reform period 1980-2005. The approach is based on neoclassical assumptions on institutional settings...

In this article we investigate the effect of product market regulation on the international diffusion of productivity shocks. The results indicate that regulations that restrict competition slow the process of adjustment through which best practice production techniques diffuse across borders...

Dans la littérature actuelle une controverse persiste quant à la validation sur données de panel de l'hypothèse selon laquelle le capital humain contribue à la croissance. Nous confirmons ce résultat à l'aide d'un échantillon comprenant 23 pays d'Afrique subsaharienne entre 1980 et 1997....

Cette étude présente les résultats d’un nouveau modèle de prévision de la croissance économique des pays de l’OCDE et des principaux pays hors OCDE sur un horizon de 50 ans, ainsi que des déséquilibres globaux. Un scénario de référence tablant sur des réformes structurelles...