Developing a model with a switching mechanism, we show how complex dynamics can be generated even though heterogeneity arises among agents with the same trading rules (fundamentalists). We assume that there are two experts which are imitated by other operators. We show that (i) market...

It is well-known that Gaussian hedging strategies are robust in the sense that they always lead to a cost process of bounded variation and that a superhedge is possible if upper bounds on the volatility of the relevant processes are available, cf. El Karoui, Jeanblanc-Picque and Shreve (1998)...

En 2005 et au début 2006, plus de 50 milliards de dollars de créances ont été remboursés par anticipation par les débiteurs du Club de Paris. Modéliser ces rachats comme l’exercice d’options financières permet d’étudier l’intérêt et le coût de ce type d’opération.

The paper presents a model where financial intermediaries invest in a safe and a risky, two-period asset -with aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks on tire risky asset. The realization of returns is privately observed by banks, which offer deposit contracts, with a promised return at t = 1, the...

Africa is today the most important part of the Francophonie. French is an official or co-official language along with other languages in 21 African countries, all in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Since the end of colonialism and Cold War politics, changes in the Francophonie have been driven largely...

This paper deals with the role of speculation on food prices' fluctuations in Senegal. The analysis is based on a nonlinear rational expectations commodity storage model which seems to be the appropriate approach to explain the behavior of the speculators who intervene on the food markets. The...

Using Consensus Forecasts monthly surveys, we show that experts' interest rate expectations in the Eurofranc market do not verify the rational expectations hypothesis. Instead, these expectations are found to be generated by a mixed process combining the traditional adaptive, regressive and...

This paper presents the literature about econometric learning and its impact on the performances of monetary policy rules in the framework of the new canonical macroeconomic model. Rational expectations which are a building block of the original model can thus be replaced by expectations based...

Cet article expose la problématique de la volatilité des prix des matières premières, montre quels sont les moyens pour s’en protéger et explique comment les employer. Les instruments de couverture sont présentés en première section, en distinguant le type de besoin auquel ils...

This survey appears in extension of a previous exploratory survey (Bouraoui, 2008) dedicated to the impact of stock spams on volumes. The interest of the present research is to study the impact on stock prices while taking into account the evolution of volatility over time through a GARCH (1,1)...