Fiscal problems have long been considered a central feature of financial--that is, currency, debt, and banking--crises. This paper addresses four questions: What are the fiscal causes of crises? Which fiscal vulnerability indicators help to predict crises? Can fiscal variables explain the...

This paper reviews the Interim Staff Report Under Intensified Surveillance for Jamaica. The authorities have reaffirmed their objective of balancing the budget in FY 2005/06, while recognizing that this now poses a greater challenge. The IMF staff now estimates that measures in the range of...

The staff report for the Post-Program Monitoring Discussions on Jordan focuses on economic developments and policies. The macroeconomic policy mix included prudent budgetary management and a credit policy supportive of economic expansion. Monetary developments reflected the brisk growth in...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that following the near crisis in the first half of 2003, the authorities in Jamaica have succeeded over the past year in stabilizing the economy and restoring market confidence. The foreign exchange market stabilized in mid-2003, inflation has...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in Yemen slowed in 2004 owing to a sharp contraction in the oil sector. Oil production declined by 5.9 percent, reflecting diminishing recovery from aging large oil fields as well as the absence of significant new discoveries....

This paper reviews the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for the Union of the Comoros. The authorities’ program for 2005 is focused on macroeconomic stabilization. This is predicated on a consolidated budget entailing a domestic fiscal adjustment slightly above 3 percent of GDP. Monetary...

This report examines Sudan’s Final Review of the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for 2003 and 2004. Policy performance was in line with the program. All quantitative targets, except for that on contracting nonconcessional external debt, were met, and most structural benchmarks were...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that impressive growth continued unabated in Lithuania in 2004. GDP expanded by an estimated 6¾ percent in 2004, driven by vigorous private consumption and investment growth. The unemployment rate declined to 10½ percent of the labor force but...

This paper assesses Pakistan’s Eighth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) and Request for Waivers and Modification of Performance Criteria (PCs). Implementation of the PRGF program in Pakistan remains broadly on track. All...

This paper examines Sri Lanka’s Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), and a Request for an Extended Arrangement. In line with the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) and building on the progress made under the Stand-By Arrangement...