In December 2016 the National Bank of Hungary (NBH), by referring to its "backcasts" (based on analyses of past data-revisions), arbitrarily revised upwards the data of the Hungarian Statistical Office (HSO) on GDP-growth for the first three quarters of 2016. This "methodological innovation" (as...

In December 2016 the National Bank of Hungary (NBH), by referring to its "backcasts" (based on analyses of past data-revisions), arbitrarily revised upwards the data of the Hungarian Statistical Office (HSO) on GDP-growth for the first three quarters of 2016. This "methodological innovation" (as...

A new family of kernels is suggested for use in heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) and long run variance (LRV) estimation and robust regression testing. The kernels are constructed by taking powers of the Bartlett kernel and are intended to be used with no truncation (or...

Numerous empirical studies have shown evidence of nonlinearities in financial time series, which can be of both a deterministic and a stochastic nature. Chaos is an example of the former, and heteroscedasticity in the conditional variance an example of the latter. We apply a test, the BDS test,...

Separating seasonal components from other sources of economic fluctuations is crucial for both economic modeling and policy making. Practitioners treat seasonality as noise to be removed before estimating models and tend to apply deseasonalizing methods i