In important conflicts such as wars and labor-management disputes, people typically rely on the judgment of experts to predict the decisions that will be made. We compared the accuracy of 106 forecasts by experts and 169 forecasts by novices about eight real conflicts. The forecasts of experts...

After receiving at least US$20 billion in aid for reconstruction and development over the past 60 years, Haiti has been and remains a fragile state, one of the worse globally. The reasons for aid failure are legion but mostly relate to highly dysfunctiona

The implementation of the Lisbon Treaty assessed new prerogatives to the European Parliament (EP) on the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and on the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). This has increased the role of the EP thus changing the balance of power with other EU...

This paper will try to explain the nature of European actorness, the mode of European policy-making, and the formation of common European interests. What are the pillars of EU power and how does the EU engage in power politics? Has Europe’s normative power of attraction vanished as a...

The increasing complexity, interdependence and acceleration of global developments, digital media and the growing share of global public goods, have all contributed to the publicitisation, sectoralisation and summitization of foreign policy worldwide. In this context, the Lisbon Treaty since...

How best to classify event counts of directed dyadic foreign policy behavior and how best to model them are points of disagreement among researchers. Should such series be modeled as unit roots ("perfect" memory) or as stationary ("short" memory)? It is demonstrated that the dichotomous choice...

Review: Hérodote: Revue de géographie et de géopolitique, 2011/3, no. 142: Géopolitique du Sahara, Paris: La Découverte.