This paper uses a long-run identifying restrictions on a three-variable system containing output growth, real wage growth and the unemployment rate, to isolate three "structural" shocks which drove business cycle fluctuations in a sample of 16 OECD countries during 1950-94.

We consider a discrete-time two-sector Cobb-Douglas economy with positive sector specific external effects. We show that indetermincay of steady states and cycles can easily arise with constant or decreasing social returns to scale, and very small market imperfections. This is in sharp contrast...

This paper analyzes regime shifts in the stochastic process of economic growth of six major OECD countries over three decades. For the statistical measurement of the underlying global business cycle, we generalize Hamilton's model of the US business cycle to a Markov-switching vector...

This paper considers the extent to which fluctuations in Australian economic growth are affected by domestic and overseas economic performance. We investigate the performance of a range of non-linear models versus linear models using Bayes factors and posterior odds ratios. The posterior odds...

In this paper we explore whether the changing composition of output in response to technology shocks can play a significant role in the propagation of shocks over time. For this purpose we study two multisector RBC models, with two and a three sectors. We find that, whereas the two sectors model...

This paper introduces job-shifting costs and durable producer goods into a framework with consumer-producers, economies of specialized learning by doing and transaction costs, developed by Yang and Borland [1991] to explore the intimate relationship among the following three phenomena...

The abrupt end of economic growth in Malaysia has created a new mood of insecurity. However, "economic insecurity" is rarely discussed in the professional economics literature and has received little emphasis in recent economic policy making in OECD nations. This paper argues that economic...