The aim of this paper is to build a tool for performing forecasting exercises, allowing to obtain a reliable estimate of Italian consumer price inflation. To reach this goal we estimate a simple three-equation model for the short term forecasting of twelve-month percentage variations of the...

The world recession triggered by the financial crisis has impacted with extraordinary violence on economic activity in Italy.What has been the contribution of the various channels through which the crisis was transmitted to the Italian economy? What have been the effects stemming from the...

Italian Abstract: In mancanza di dati infrannuali tempestivi sulla dinamica del prodotto regionale, questo lavoro costruisce un nuovo indicatore dell'attività economica del Veneto che stima in tempo reale l'evoluzione mensile di medio-lungo termine del PIL regionale. La metodologia si basa...

Italian Abstract: Elementi di teoria dei giochi necessari ad implementare e risolvere giochi statici e dinamici con informazione completa e incompleta. Particolare attenzione e dettagli di soluzione sono esposti per i giochi bayesiani dinamici con informazione incompleta

Italian Abstract: Vengono esposti i principi base della teoria delle aste. Quali le questioni da risolvere, quali ingredienti, quali ipotesi necessarie per semplificare una teoria altrimenti piuttosto complessa. Vengono sviluppati i meccanismi d'asta al I e al II prezzo, risolvendo per le...

Incomes policy started with the San Valentine's decree of 1984, which marks the beginning of the process that led to the abolishment of Scala Mobile and reached its peak with the Protocollo d'intesa of 1993. The work proposes to study by cointegration analysis the effects of incomes policy on...

The aim of this work is to estimate the relationship between tariff barriers and trade growth at the world level applying a long-term approach and comparing different trade regimes. At the same time it aims at giving useful insights to assess the effectiveness of the current multilateral trading...

Introduzione – 1. La domanda di calcio in Italia: i fatti stilizzati – 2. La domanda di calcio: letteratura ed evidenze empiriche – 3.1 La stima dei per game tickets – 3.2 La stima dei seasonal tickets – 4. Conclusioni

The paper surveys different approaches to the estimation of the underground economy. First, the focus is on the methodologies adopted by the Italian and French Statistical Institutes, respectively based on the exhaustive estimate of the labour input and on tax compliance data. Secondly, we...

Nonlinear time series models can exhibit components such as long range trends and seasonalities that may be modeled in a flexible fashion. The resulting unconstrained maximum likelihood estimator can be too heavily parameterized and suboptimal for forecasting purposes. The paper proposes the use...