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Many ways exist to measure and model financial asset volatility. In principle, as the frequency of the data increases, the quality of forecasts should improve. Yet, there is no consensus about a "true" or "best" measure of volatility. In this paper we propose to jointly consider absolute daily...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005812865
estimator for forecasting time series, with a special attention to GARCH and ACD models. The local large sample properties of …Nonlinear time series models can exhibit components such as long range trends and seasonalities that may be modeled in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005075728
baseline GARCH but not so relative to the range; there are relevant gains from modeling volatility trends and using realized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005075734
The Multiplicative Error Model introduced by Engle (2002) for non-negative valued processes is specified as the product of a (conditionally autoregressive) scale factor and an innovation process with positive support. In this paper we propose a multivariate extension of such a model, by taking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005731544
This paper assesses the performance of volatility forecasting using focused selection and combination strategies to include relevant explanatory variables in the forecasting model. The focused selection/combination strategies consist of picking up the model that minimizes the estimated risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005731546
In this paper we propose an on-line Bayesian filtering and smoothing method for time series models with heavy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005687784
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