The world recession triggered by the financial crisis has impacted with extraordinary violence on economic activity in Italy.What has been the contribution of the various channels through which the crisis was transmitted to the Italian economy? What have been the effects stemming from the...

We analyze several measures of volatility (realized variance, bipower variation and squared daily returns) as estimators of integrated variance of a continuous time stochastic process for an asset price. We use a Multiplicative Error Model to describe the evolution of each measure as the product...

Nonlinear time series models can exhibit components such as long range trends and seasonalities that may be modeled in a flexible fashion. The resulting unconstrained maximum likelihood estimator can be too heavily parameterized and suboptimal for forecasting purposes. The paper proposes the use...

In this paper we address the issue of forecasting Value–at–Risk (VaR) using different volatility measures: realized volatility, bipower realized volatility, two scales realized volatility, realized kernel as well as the daily range. We propose a dynamic model with a flexible trend...

The frequency of crashes and the magnitude of crises in international financial markets are growing more severe over time. Recent financial crises are not singular events portrayed in recent accounts, rather, they erupt in circumstances that are very similar to the economic and financial...

The Multiplicative Error Model introduced by Engle (2002) for non-negative valued processes is specified as the product of a (conditionally autoregressive) scale factor and an innovation process with positive support. In this paper we propose a multivariate extension of such a model, by taking...

This paper assesses the performance of volatility forecasting using focused selection and combination strategies to include relevant explanatory variables in the forecasting model. The focused selection/combination strategies consist of picking up the model that minimizes the estimated risk...

We study the effects of the world economic crisis which began in 2007 on the Italian productive system. National accounts data are supplemented with information gathered in spring 2009 from the Bank of Italy�s survey on industrial and service firms, and from interviews with about 70 of...

Italian Abstract: In mancanza di dati infrannuali tempestivi sulla dinamica del prodotto regionale, questo lavoro costruisce un nuovo indicatore dell'attività economica del Veneto che stima in tempo reale l'evoluzione mensile di medio-lungo termine del PIL regionale. La metodologia si basa...